Question of the Month: Tiger v. Jack
The Golf Blog: Tiger v. Jack (click for larger image)
Shout out to Chabber for correctly answering July’s Question of the Month: Harvard Square is the site of the Tiger Woods ad. This month we’re upping the ante. The Question of the Month is: tell us why Tiger won’t catch or surpass Jack Nicklaus’s record 18 major championships.
Whoever writes the best answer will receive a Jack Nicklaus £ 5 note, courtesy of The Golf Blog. Remember you have to defend Jack in your answer – you can’t select Tiger’s side. Just for devil’s advocate sake, we’ll make the case for the opposite side. Here’s why Tiger will beat Jack’s record.
Evidence A: As shown in the graph above, Tiger’s already 3 years ahead of Jack’s pace in securing majors, after locking up No. 10 before the age of 30. Tiger’s more than halfway home and he no doubt can rattle off 9 majors in the next 10 years. His swing changes with Hank Haney seem to have taken shape.
Evidence B: Ever since little, Tiger has had a single-minded focus in beating Jack’s record. Tiger just won’t be stopped when he sets his mind to something.
Evidence C: Tiger and Jack in his prime seem evenly matched in all aspects of the game except one: short game. Jack would be the first to admit Tiger’s got a more versatile short game.
Evidence D: Competition, or lack thereof. When it comes to the majors and Tiger’s in contention, no one (with the sole exception of a streaking Rich Beem) seems to be able to trade shots with Tiger, blow for blow. Jack had the likes of Palmer, Player, Trevino, Watson (for a few years, Miller) – all world class players who competed head-to-head with Jack without wilting.
Rules
1. Only 1 entry per person. Enter by posting "comment" to this entry.
2. Everyone can post a “comment” to answer this month’s Question, but if you’d like a chance at the prize you must use a username when you comment so we can identify you later on. Selecting a username on Blogger takes a minute, is very easy, and doesn’t have to be your real name.
3. In a tie, a good comment posted earlier in time will beat the same comment posted by someone else later.
14 Comments:
All right...let's see how I do:
First off, I can't argue with Evidence A...facts are facts.
Can't argue with evidence B...it is a lot easier to chase a visable target than to forge a new one.
Outside of the statement that Tiger has a stronger short game, Evidence C couldn't be more wrong. And even the short game, close observers may note that Tiger makes more long putts than Jack did, but he also misses more short (3-foot) ones.
Nicklaus was built for the long haul. He played multiple sports throughout college at OSU and ran a 11-flat 100. The only sport Tiger ever played outside of golf was cross-country.
Jack didn't take golf seriously until 19...Tiger was on TV regarding golf when he was still in diapers.
Jack has stated that he would have left golf in a heartbeat if it meant hurting his marriage or family. If Tiger had the choice of no major wins for ten years or a broken marriage in ten years, break out the beer, because the Wanamaker is coming home.
Jack had a childhood, and a normal college life. Tiger had none of this.
What does all this mean? No matter how good Tiger is, to catch Jack, he has to be in it for the long haul. Let's say he can win two majors a year for the rest of his "golfing career". That means he has to be a strong player until he is 35.
Remember Watson, Palmer, and Seve? They all stopped being factors in majors in their early thirties. Remember Tiger getting knee surgery? Think injuries can't happen? Tell that to Els. Tell that to Tiger when he has kids and decides to go boating or diving. Mild to major injuries happen to almost half the players on tour every year. One last point to add about Jack's ability to endure for so many years unlike all his contempories...he had Barbara. Jack always said the most relaxed place in the world was in his home because Barbara was a general who directed his life both before the press and socially as well. Elin doesn't know anything about commercials, golf contracts, golf publicity, or the pressure of the press. She knows how to wear a swimsuit and babysit a kid, and I think only one of those is going to come to use in the years Tiger needs it most.
Nicklaus was always known for his ability to stay cool on the course. Tiger is a hot head when his chips are down, and as we saw (and heard the announcers say)in Buick when almost all was lost, he just tried practice shots and had pretty much given up on winning the tournament. Only then, when he let the anger subside, did he play Nicklesque, and pull out a 2nd place finish. Without blowing his temper on the first 9 holes, he would have had a win.
As for evidence D, to say that Nicklaus competition is worse than Jack's is merely bowing to those who are out of the game, and want their accomplishments to be admired (Remember Palmer/Black Knight stating to anyone who would listen how their generation was oh so much better?)
As for players who will stand up to Tiger, let's look at his last tournaments.
U.S. Open...Michael Campbell made everyputt he looked at, despite knowing Tiger was on his tail.
At the Buick: Vijay...after Tiger tied his best round to play with Vijay on Saturday, Vijay blows him out of the water to win by four strokes.
Western...despite Tiger having a hot round on Sunday, Furyk pulls out a 2 stroke win over him. This is after Furyk took a devestating loss the prior week to Harrington on the final hole.
Memorial...Tiger didn't shoot a better round than any of the four players who finished tied or better than him.
Byron Nelson...Tiger shows the kink in his armor missing the cut.
In his first 6 years, Jack saw Palmer/Player/Casper win 6 of the majors. Tiger in his first 6 years saw Els/O'Meara/Vijay win 6 of the majors. Both saw all those players disappear (with the exception of Vijay, but time will take care of that), but I'd be far more worried about the talent of the young guys chasing Tiger...Scott, O'Hair, Donald.
My last point not noted in the evidence...course design. Since Tiger took the stage, course have tried to become more difficult by increasing distance. That only made Tiger more formidable. Look at that trend to end. Luke Donald, mentioned before, is not long, but as the old courses run out of room (they are lengthening Augusta as we speak...again), they will be forced to make accuracy a factor as in the late 80s. Right now, length means everything, and accuracy, nothing. By pinching in the fairways, making the rough no longer a bail-out option, and technology makes greens no longer an option from the rough, Tiger will have to formulate a new game, while those with the accuracy to hit the fairway take the reigns.
On a side note...not to argue Tiger's case, but the amateur championships he's won should count towards his major count. Thus, it should be Jack:20, Tiger:13.
I won't be able to keep up with Power Fade's comprehensive analysis, but I can hone my argument down to one word: KIDS.
Every parent can tell you that having kids --- far more than getting married or really any other life event --- entails extraordinary changes both the broad outlook and the day-to-day particulars of life. And this can have a profound impact on a career path, no matter what profession is involved.
I am not saying that kids definitely will derail Tiger's major march. But Tiger's daily schedule and overall approach to preparation/practice will have to change when kids enter the picture, and his ability to adapt to those realities will ultimately determine if (when?) Tiger can surpass Jack.
the simple answer is ...fate....
Tiger has yet to endure any of life's difficulties...one has already been mentioned..children...
there are also marital problems...family bereavements...etc etc...
However he won't get to 18 because there are some very seriously talented guys out there who will take their fair share of majors in the next ten years....Mickelson, Singh, Els and Goosen will all win..
Below them younger guys like Donald, Garcia and Scott will surely step up....plus others yet to really emerge...
others who are well overdue a turn...Clarke, Harrington, Perry,Di Marco,Bjorn etc etc
then add the usual "who can believe that one" winners like Lawrie, Curtis,Beem, Micheel etc....
Tiger has probably ten years left...he needs one every year....just don't think he is likely to do that ..
A. Tiger will not have Jack's longevity. Jack was a mature man when he won most of his majors, while Tiger is a sheltered, immature kid, who has just gotten married, has not had to deal with kids, has not lost a parent yet, etc.
Tiger has also not had a life yet. His popularity has forced him into a social jail and he may face a major mid-life crisis early in his career. The constant mdeia scrutiny will not allow him to continue his career well into his forties.
B. Tiger had his sights on Jack all his life. Everyone has their sights on Tiger today. Many of his competitors would like nothing more than to see him fail and they will attack on all fronts to do that. That will make Tiger's life a lot harder.
C. Tiger might have an amazing short game, but he is has a lot of problems with his driving. Haney's work has not done fixed anything yet, and may never will. Tiger has no problems with Autgusta (no rough) and St. Andrews (no rough). But he has problems when it comes to keeping it in the short grass on US Open and PGA tracks. The only reason he gets away with it sometimes is that he has gone to better equipment that allows him to carry it so far. It's always easier to hit a more lofted club out of rough than a long iron.
D. As I stated above (B), Tiger has a lot more competition than Jack ever did. Maybe not in quality but rather in quantity. So many young players want to beat him, so many older players want to beat him, that his chances are lower than Jack's were competing against a few good players of his era. And once again, equipment has made it easier for the unknowns to claim the hardware. Did Jack have Beems, Micheels, Hamilltons and Curtises to deal with at every major? Not to mention the Furyks, Toms, Elses, Singhs, Michelsons, Goosens and Leonards...
Tiger can't and won't do it. He had one long slump, a longer one is not that far behind....
The only conceivable way Tiger will not beat Jack's 18 majors record, other than sustaining a career-ending injury, is by his competition.
In 1999, Tiger beat a 19 year old Sergio Garcia by only a stroke for the PGA Championship.
In 2000, Tiger defeated Bob May at the PGA Championship by only a stroke (I believe, 1 or 2), and may have lost had not some fan who forever will remain unidentified kicked his ball out of the path of some nasty bushes after an errant drive.
In 2005, Tiger was only able to defeat Chris DiMarco after a perfect pitch going dead center into the hole managed not to fall.
Vijay Singh finished Top 10 in all 4 Majors this year, in contention in 3, and his putter was overall terrible. If he puts that together like last year, he will contend and win majors, he is one of the best tee-to-green players of all time. Phil has now won 2, and has the game to win any of the four, he can contend consistently. The only ones who can stop Tiger are his competitors.
If Tiger doesn't surpass Nicklaus's record of 20 (yes, 20, the U.S. Amateurs count), it will be because he got bored. Tiger is a lot smarter than Jack, and he may decide that there are more significant things to do in life than play golf.
Jack was the first to record 18 major championships, Tiger can never beat that record.
Tiger will not beat Jack's record for the following reasons:
1) Tiger's current wins have all come at a time when his competition was "paralyzed" or scared by the wonder-kid phenom. This is already becoming less of a problem for the competition.
2) The Almighty Dollar... Let's face it when Jack was playing well the game didn't pay as well, so guys that could have competed may have opted not to simply because they wanted more in a career.
3) Competition... when Jack was hot the only way to get on the tour was to go through Q-School, The qualaity of the "bush" league tours is adding more "quality" players to the tour at a much faster rate, i.e. win 3x on teh Nationawide tour and get your tour card.
4) Stats are stats, but even Tiger's meteoric rise will have to flatten out as he becomes involved in life away from golf
I BELIEVE Tiger Woods will surpass Jacks record not only the collection of major’s but also any other record Jack has.
Lets face it people always talk about how in Jack's time the golf equipment was different, but people always want to forget that the courses nowadays are longer, there are more obstructions in place, so in a way Tiger Woods is a better player then Jack.
One of the blogers said that tiger doesnt have any rivals how can that be true Tiger has ' Vijay, Phil, Campbell (go you little beauty), Els, Goosen, that’s just to name a few. How can people say that Tiger Woods has no rivals?
As for Tiger Woods not having to face any of 'life’s difficulties' that is utter rubbish. The only thing I can say is African - Asian.
Im not to sure of how many African Americans are on the PGA tour but to be a player of the Black color is quite possibly one of the most difficult life experiences any golfer could face. Not only is Tiger Woods a Black golfer but he also manages to be the greatest player in the world. Tiger Woods is just AMAZING.
Whatever happens, and when all is said and done, Jack will emerge as the classier human being.
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