The Golf Blog says: Tiger Woods turns 37 tomorrow. That means he needs 5 more majors in the next 10 years–assuming he follows Jack Nicklaus’s pattern of obtaining his last major by age 46–in order to beat Jack’s record of 18 majors. With that pace, Tiger needs to win 1 major every 2 years in order to set the all-time record. The pace seems at least within the realm of possibility, if not plausibility.
Of course, winning a major at age 46 seems less likely, so it’s probably fewer than 10 years to get the job done. Let’s pick age 42–the age Ernie Els won his last major this past year. Mark O’Meara won his only 2 majors at age 41, so 42 seems a realistic number. If age 42 is the last time Tiger will win a major, that gives Tiger 6 more years or 24 majors left to win 5 majors, a nearly 21% win rate. Of course, we need to factor in Tiger’s health, so it may end up being less than 24 majors he will compete in during the next 6 years, so the win rate Tiger will need to maintain could be even better than 21%. A tall order.
When you do the math, the odds are looking better and better–for Jack.